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Market Looks Forward to Advance GDP and Non-Farm Payrolls Report

This week’s economic calendar promises to be jam-packed with a wealth of information from the US and Japan.

Both the Fed and the BOJ will be releasing their latest Interest Rate changes on Thursday April 30th. First up is the BOJ Interest Rate Announcement with the BOJ expected to keep rates on hold once again at 0.50%. This is in spite of the encouraging Consumer Inflation data released last week which showed that Core CPI YoY grew in line with expectations to 1.2% from the previous reading of 1.0%.

The FOMC, on the other hand, is expected to continue its run of recent rate cuts by reducing the Fed Funds Rate to 2.00%. This represents a cut of 0.25%, less aggressive than in recent months. Some economists are expecting rates to stabilise at this level for at least the near-term.

As you would expect the US Labor Market will be closely scrutinized this week with both ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Non-Farm Payrolls scheduled for release. Early indications are for another month of job cuts, -60K expected from the ADP report.

This week we will also see the following high volatility economic events from the US: Advance GDP QoQ (13:30, Weds Apr 30^th), Personal Spending (13:30, Thurs May 01), ISM Manufacturing Index (15:00, Thurs May 01), Unemployment Rate (13:30, Fri 02 May).

High profile events from the rest of the world (times BST):
New Zealand Trade Balance - Mon Apr 28 @ 23:45
UK Nationwide House Prices - Tues Apr 29 NTS
New Zealand Building Consents - Tues Apr 29 @ 23:45
Swiss Leading Index - Weds Apr 30 @ 10:30
Canadian GDP - Weds Apr 30 @ 13:30
Australian Building Approvals - Thur May 01 @ 02:30
UK Manufacturing PMI - Thur May 01 @ 09:30
Australian Retail Sales - Fri May 02 @ 02:30

The highlight of this week’s economic speeches calendar will undoubtedly be BOJ Governor Shirakawa’s press conference following the BOJ Interest Rate Announcement. Traders will be keen to see how the new governor sees the Japanese economy in light of recent increased consumer inflation. Furthermore BOC Governor Carney and Deputy Governor Jenkins testimony in front of the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce will draw heavy interest.

Consumer Price Inflation In Focus

With no fewer than 7 Consumer Price Index releases, consumer inflation readings are definitely in focus this week. We will see CPI data from New Zealand (Monday), France & the UK (Tuesday), Germany, the Eurozone and the US (Wednesday) and Canada on Friday.

The raw number from New Zealand and the UK are both expected to draw heavy market interest and volatility while the same can be expected for US and Canadian Core CPI figures.

It is not just Consumer Price Inflation drawing all of the interest with Producer Price Inflation (PPI) from the UK (Monday) and the US (Tuesday) also hitting the wire. Both of these data releases are expected to generate high market volatility, especially in the GBPUSD currency pair.

Other key economic events for this week include:

New Zealand Retail Sales MoM – Sunday April 13 at 23:45

US Core Retail Sales MoM – Monday April 14 at 13:30

Canadian Business Outlook Survey – Monday April 14 at 15:30

UK RICS House Price Balance – Tuesday April 15 at 00:01

The Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Meeting Minutes – Tuesday April 15 at 02:30

US Empire State Manufacturing Index – Tuesday April 15 at 13:30

Treasury International Capital Net Long-Term Transactions – Tuesday April 15 at 14:00

UK Average Earnings Index + Bonus – Wednesday April 16 at 09:30

(all times are UK summer time GMT +1)

This week our visual analysis and historical data tools will be covering the US PPI MoM (Tuesday), the US Core CPI MoM (Wednesday) and the Canadian Core CPI MoM on Thursday. High market volatility is expected for all three of these events as our Visual Analysis tool enters its third month of service.