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This week could be the key to setting the near to medium term sentiment in the USD. Highly anticipated economic data is due this week with the Advance GDP and Non-Farm Employment Change top of the list.

The US economic calendar begins the week slowly and we have to wait until 15:00 on Tuesday 29th for our first high volatility event. The Consumer Confidence Index has been falling consistently with economists expecting further declines this month. Consumer Confidence is seen as key to consumer spending. However, with global energy inflation driving domestic CPI its effects are hard to decipher.

Further high volatility will come from the US on Wednesday with ADP Non-Farm Employment Change due. This data acts as a preview to the official Non-Farm Payrolls news released later in the week. However, any correlation between the two sets of numbers is weak at best. Never the less, traders will be watching keenly at 13:15 on the 30th.

Thursday will be a busy trading period all-around but the main focus will be US Advance GDP. This data related to Q2 and is expected to show annualized growth of 2.2%. It should also be noted that the Employment Cost Index QoQ and Initial Jobless Claims are due at 13:30. Although they are not expected to be high volatility events themselves they will carry increased influence due to the employment data due the following day.

The first Friday of every month is always a big day due to Non-Farm Employment Change. This news carries arguably the most volatility to the market of any economic data. Coupled with the release of US Unemployment Rate (which is creating more volatility of late as economists watch the labor market show signs of economic recession) the early morning New York session promises to be a busy one. Payrolls are expected to show contraction of 75K for the month of June while Unemployment Rate probably increased to 5.6%.

It should not be forgotten that the ISM Manufacturing Index is also due on Friday. Traders are expecting the Index to show 49.4, a level that indicates contraction in the manufacturing industry.

Further high volatility events for this week are as follows:

Sunday July 27th
New Zealand Trade Balance

Monday July 28th
New Zealand Building Consents

Wednesday July 30th
Australian Building Approvals

Thursday July 31st
Australian Retail Sales
Australian Trade Balance
Swiss CPI
Nationwide House Price Index
Canadian GDP

Friday August 1st
UK Manufacturing PMI

As a side note it may be worth watching AUDUSD this week. With decent volatility expected in both currencies and price just below 25-year highs it could be a pivotal week.

The ECB Interest Rate Announcement and US Non-Farm Employment Change look set to dominate this week's economic calendar with much volatility expected.

Last week we saw Dollar negative sentiment drag the greenback lower against the majors. This was after the FOMC seemed to distance itself from the need for an urgent rate hike. It seems that the negative pressure on the economy outweighs the need for commodity inflation controlling rate increases. Interest rate futures reacted accordingly with only a 25% chance of a rate hike in August (down from 40%).

Therefore, it stands to reason that this weeks NFP report will be very closely watched. We have been seeing US labor conditions deteriorate recently with a contraction in payrolls, a steadily rising trend in the number of Initial Jobless Claims and a rapid increase to 5.5% Unemployment Rate.  If the US labor market fails to show signs of improvement this week, and few economists are expecting that it will, then further US Dollar weakness is likely. The Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings data releases have all been moved to Thursday July 3rd because of the US Independence Day holiday on Friday July 4th.

Also due on Thursday is the ECB Interest Rate Announcement. Rates are expected to increase from 4.00% to 4.25% as the ECB looks to counteract increasing inflation. With the CPI Flash Estimate expected to increase to 3.9% YoY (release on Monday June 30th at 11:00 CET) the hike is almost a done deal. As usual traders will be watching the ECB commentary at the press conference held later in the day. It is due to take place at the same time as the US labor releases so extreme volatility is expected.

Elsewhere we have a busy week in store for the CAD, NZD, GBP and AUD.

Trading in the Canadian Dollar will be influenced by oil prices and also Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Ivey PMI. The latter may see slightly less volatility than normal as it falls on the US holiday. The week will be cut slightly short in Canada too because of the Canada Day holiday on Tuesday July 1st.

High volatility will be seen in the New Zealand Dollar at the beginning of the week with Building Consents and Business Confidence both due to hit the wire. Trading in the NZDUSD is likely to be dominated by US data arriving later in the week however.

The GBP benefited last week from BOE comments about inflation. This week we will see Nationwide House Prices, Manufacturing PMI, the Halifax House Price Index and Services PMI from the UK. Each of these releases is expected to create high market volatility.

Volatility in the Australian Dollar will benefit this week from the releases of the RBA Interest Rate Statement (expected to remain on hold at 7.25%), Building Approvals, Retail Sales and Trade Balance data.

This week's high volatility events are as follows (all events are London time, UK DST, GMT+1):

Sunday: New Zealand Building Consents (23:45)
Monday: New Zealand Business Confidence (04:00)
Canadian GDP (13:30)
Tuesday: Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (00:50)
RBA Interest Rate Statement (05:30)
Nationwide House Price Index (07:00)
UK Manufacturing PMI (09:30)
US ISM Manufacturing Prices (15:00)
Wednesday: Australian Building Approvals (02:30)
Australian Retail Sales (02:30)
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (13:15)
Thursday: Australian Trade Balance (02:30)
Swiss CPI (06:45)
Halifax House Price Index (NTS)
UK Services PMI (09:30)
ECB Interest Rate Announcement (12:45)
ECB Press Conference (13:30)
US Non-Farm Employment Change (13:30)
US Unemployment Rate (13:30)
US ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (15:00)
Friday: Ivey PMI (15:00)

Our Economic Calendar has been updated for the upcoming working week. It is important to mention that our default time setting has changed to GMT+1 to reflect UK DST (daylight saving time)/ British summer time. If you would like to know how this relates to your domestic time you can use the Qlock World Time Clock.

This weeks’ main focus will undoubtedly be on employment data from the US. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Wednesday), Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday), Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate (Friday) will all be closely watched. The fear is that the US economy is slipping into recession and the employment market is one of the most important driving factors of the economy.

Before the headline Payrolls figure hits the wire on Friday there will be considerable interest paid to US Manufacturing Data. The Institute of Supply Management is due to release its Manufacturing Index on Tuesday and the newer Non-Manufacturing Composite on Thursday. Traders’ focus will remain on weather either of these two indicators can pull their head above the 50 mark. A reading above 50 signifies expansion, while a reading sub 50 indicates industry contraction.

Elsewhere, New Zealand Building Consents (Sunday), Canadian GDP (Monday), Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers’ Index, RBA Interest Rate Statement, UK Manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) and UK Services PMI (Thursday) round off a busy week all-round.

The Economic Speeches Calendar is equally as busy for the coming week. The focus will fall on Fed Chairman Bernanke’s Testimony to the Joint Economic Committee in Washington DC. It is expected that Bernanke will field some difficult question from the Committee on US Economic Outlook.

Traders will also keep a keen eye on RBA Governor Stevens’ Testimony to the House of Representatives Senate Standing Committee on Economics in Sydney.

If you wish to view this weeks' data at a later date you can visit its archive page.