Next week will be the last of the calendar year without any holiday interruptions. We have a moderately busy economic calendar set out for us and it would not be unusual to see trading volume diminish significantly as the week wears on.

In particular traders will be watching CPI releases from major economies, Retail Sales and Interest Rate announcements from The Fed and BOJ.

Next Week
The first high volatility event is scheduled in the overnight session at 23:50 on Sunday. The Japanese Tankan Manufacturing Index is expected to deteriorate for the fourth quarter to -23. Third quarter data had seen the index slip into negative territory at -3.

Monday will be a fairly quiet day with just the one significant event scheduled. The US Treasury will release treasury International Capital, or TIC Long-Term Transactions for October. Expectations are for a fall in the net value of foreign investment in US securities to $40.0B from the $66.2B seen September.

In the early hours of Tuesday morning, at 00:30, the RBA will release its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from the December 2nd meeting. High volatility is expected as traders look for an insight into the 1.00 percent cut in the Cash Rate.

At 09:30 we have the first of the week’s Consumer Price Index releases. Yearly CPI from the UK is expected to continue its moderation, likely down to 3.9% in November from 4.5% in October.

The US will also be releasing CPI data for November. The Fed prefers the Core CPI rate and this number is expected to show a 0.1% rise following the surprise -0.1% in October.

At the same time (13:30) Building Permits will also be released. Expectations are for a fall in the annualized number of new residential permits issued during November to 700K. The number for October came in at 708K, a MoM drop of 12 percent.

Possibly the most highly anticipated event of the week will take place at roughly 19:15 on Tuesday. The FOMC Interest Rate Statement is expected to reveal a 0.50 percent cut in the Federal Funds Rate to 0.50%. Interest rate futures are currently pricing this move in at 100% with a 75% chance of a deeper 0.75% cut.

Wednesday will be dominated by news from the UK. At 09:30 we are due to see Claimant Count Change and the December 4th BOE MPC Meeting Minutes. The monthly change in people claiming unemployment benefit for November probably increased to 45K from 36.5K a month earlier.

The MPC Meeting Minutes are expected to reveal a unanimous decision to cut rates by 1.00% on December 4th. However, traders will be very keen to see whether a larger cut was considered.

Moving forward to 11:00 we will see the CBI Distributive Trades Survey, or Realised Sales. The Index is expected to have improved slightly, up to -41 from -46 over the since the last release on November 28th.

In typical fashion, Thursday will be a busy day. We begin at 02:00 with the NBNZ Business Outlook Survey. The Index came in at -43 for the month of November.

High volatility is expected from the Eurozone with the German Ifo Business Climate Survey at 09:00. Consensus estimates are for a number of 84.0 after the 85.8 seen in November.

UK Retail Sales for November will be released at 09:30. Coming into the busy festive period MoM sales are expected to have fallen by 0.6% after a 0.1% decline in October.

Canadian Core Retail Sales should produce high volatility at 13:30. After an increase by 0.8% in September, sales are expected to have fallen by 1.0% in October.

At the same time US Initial Jobless Claims will also be released. Last weeks number of 573K was a 26-year high but claims are expected to moderate this time around, down to 558K.

On Friday morning we will see the second central bank monetary policy announcement of the week. The BOJ will release its Overnight Call Rate and is expected to remain on hold at 0.30%. High volatility will likely be reserved for the BOJ Press Conference later in the day as traders look for an insight into the decision.

Rounding off the week we have the Canadian Core CPI. Core CPI in November is expected to show a monthly decline of 0.2%, equalling the 0.2% drop seen in October.

This Week
The working week will be slightly shorter than usual in the US and Japan thanks to bank/ market holidays. The Labour Thanksgiving Day holiday takes place in Japan on Monday, while Thanksgiving Day will be celebrated in the US on Thursday. There is also an early market close at some US exchanges on Friday.

On Monday there will be major news from the Eurozone and the US. At 09:00 the German Ifo Business Climate Index will be announced. The Index is expected to slip to 88.8 from 90.2 in the previous month.

High volatility will come from the US at 15:00 with Existing Home Sales. Traders are expecting the annualized number to fall to 5.02M for the month of October, down from 5.18M seen in September.

Later in the day, at a time yet to be specified, President-Elect Obama is set to hold a press conference to discuss his economic team appointments. Although this event isn’t expected to create high volatility a reaction is expected from traders. This will probably be more evident in the stock market as traders assess the qualifications and suitability of those appointed.

Tuesday will be fairly action packed beginning with quarterly Inflation Expectations from New Zealand. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand survey of business managers is due at 02:00 with a CPI prediction of 3.0% seen at the last release.

High volatility is also expected for the MPC Treasury Committee Hearings at 09:45 on Tuesday. MPC members will testify before the UK Parliament’s Treasury Committee on the latest Inflation Report.

At 13:30 we will see high volatility from the US and Canada. Preliminary US GDP is due with a -0.5% reading expected after -0.3% in the previous quarter.

Canada will be releasing Core Retail Sales with a MoM increase of 0.2% forecast after the -0.3% seen last month. Retail Sales are also due but the Core number is seen as more important.

Later in the day the Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index will be released. High volatility is expected for the indicator which is likely to remain at 38.0 for the second month in succession.

Wednesday will produce the second bout of GDP data for the week. The UK will announce its revised GDP reading for the 3rd quarter. No revisions are anticipated for the final reading so it is likely that UK GDP contracted by 0.5% in Q3.

At 13:30 there will be a US double header with Core Durable Goods Orders and Initial Jobless Claims due for release. Core Durable Goods Orders probably fell by 1.4% on the month after a revised 1.0% decline seen in September. Initial Jobless Claims will be closely watched after the 542K 16-year high last week. A slightly lower number of 530K is anticipated this time around.

At 15:00 we will see US New Home Sales. If analyst expectations are correct the annualized pace of New Home Sales will fall to 443K from 464K in September.

Rounding off a busy Wednesday will be the New Zealand Trade Balance. Expectations are for a narrowing of the trade deficit to 1000M from 1183M New Zealand Dollars.

As we have already discussed, Thursday will be slightly quieter than usual with the US holiday but we will have several important releases. First up at 00:30 is Private New Capital Expenditure from Australia. Expectations are for a 0.5% quarterly growth in private business expenditure, down from growth of 5.7% in the previous quarter.

At 02:00 we will see the National Bank of New Zealand Business Outlook report. The survey of business confidence came in at -42.3 last month.

At 07:00 we will see the UK’s Nationwide House Price Index. Average home prices in the UK continue to decline with a monthly fall of 1.7% expected according to the high street mortgage lender. This comes after a 1.4% decline in September.

After a quiet afternoon session New Zealand’s Building Consents are due for release. A monthly increase of 8.4% was seen in September.

Friday will be a quiet end to the week with only one high volatility event scheduled. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Realised Sales index is expected to show further decline in sales volume throughout British Industry. The index is expected to read -35 after -27 seen last month.

Last Week
Last week was characterised by further weakness in Sterling as BOE Governor King confirmed that more rate cuts are coming “if that proves to be necessary”. The BOE Inflation Report also confirmed that inflation will fall to “well below” the Bank’s target 2.0% in two years time. At the present time the market is expecting the UK Official Bank Rate to hit 2.00% by mid 2009.

On the other hand, Yen and the US Dollar were firm against the major currencies as economic data proved that the global economy is entering a recession. The GBP USD dove from an early week high of 1.5884 by over 1000 pips to a low of 1.4557. Based on closing prices this represents a weekly fall of 6.09%.

The GBP JPY was also very weak, falling by 7.43% on the week. This time last week one GBP would have bought you over 153 Yen, however the exchange rate currently stands at 143.02.

Other than the UK Inflation Report last week’s major news announcements were Initial Jobless Claims which hit a 7-year high of 516K and US Retail Sales which managed all-time YoY lows. Headline Retail Sales were down 2.8% YoY in October while Core Retail Sales were down by 2.2%. These numbers are even worse than 2001’s post September 11th data.

This Week
Once again the world’s major economies will be active this week with plenty to keep traders occupied. We begin at 23:50 on Sunday with Japanese preliminary GDP QoQ. The data is expected to show that the Japanese economy grew by 0.1% in the 3rd quarter after a 0.7% contraction in the previous period.

On Monday we have Real Retail Sales from Australia at 00:30. This indicator strips out the effects of inflation on Retail Sales. On a quarterly basis traders are expecting a 0.4% increase. In the last quarter Real Retail Sales fell by 0.6%.

Tuesday will be a busy day with Australian, UK, US and New Zealand data due. We begin at 00:30 with the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes which will offer an insight into the 0.75% rate cut on November 4th.

At 09:30 the UK’s YoY CPI is due. Economists are expecting inflation to fall from the 5.2% seen last month to 4.8%.

High volatility from the US begins with the Producer Price Index at 13:30. PPI is expected to post a -1.9% MoM for October after the 0.4% decline seen in September. This is followed by TIC Net Long-Term Transactions at 14:00. Foreign purchases of US securities have been in decline in recent months with a surplus of $18.0B expected in October.

At 14:30 Fed Chairman and US Treasury Secretary Paulson will testify before the US House of Representatives Financial Services Committee on the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). High volatility is expected while the pair are making their remarks.

The data from New Zealand will be in the form of PPI Input. This data measures the rate of inflation experienced by manufacturers when purchasing goods and raw materials. The index came in at 5.6% in September.

Wednesday continues where a busy Tuesday left off. RBA Governor Stevens will speak in Melbourne. His remarks are expected to generate high volatility.

At 09:30 the BOE’s MPC Meeting Minutes will be released. Traders are expecting the vote count to be unanimous in favour of November 6th’s 1.50% interest rate cut.

At 13:30 we will see two high volatility events from the US. Core CPI is expected to show a 0.1% MoM increase in October. This is in-line with September’s number. Building Permits are expected to show a slight decline in the annualized number of residential permits issued. A number of 770K is anticipated for October.

At 19:00 we will have yet more insight into recent central bank rate cuts with the FOMC Meeting Minutes. This release corresponds to the 0.50% rate cut seen on October 29th.

A busy week for the UK continues on Thursday with October’s Retail Sales number due. A MoM decline of 0.9% is expected, steeper than September’s 0.4% fall.

Particular interest will be paid to this week’s Initial Jobless Claims report from the US at 13:30. As we have already mentioned, claims hit a 7-year high last week at 516K with a slightly lower number of 508K likely this week.

On Friday morning the BOJ Interest Rate Statement will be released. Rates are expected to remain on hold at 0.30% with the BOJ Press Conference likely to be the high volatility event.

The final high volatility event of the week will come from Canada with the Core CPI release. September saw a 0.4% increase with October expected to be completely flat at 0.0%.

For further information and updates be sure to visit our economic calendar. This week US PPI, BOE MPC Meeting Minutes, US Core CPI and Canadian Core CPI will all be supported by our visual analysis and historical data tool.

 

The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised investors over night by cutting the Cash Rate to 6.00%, a full 1.0% cut. The market had been expecting a 0.50% cut to 6.50%.

Last night’s rate change was the largest since December 1994 and it sent the AUDUSD tumbling to an overnight low of 0.7025, re-testing yesterday’s low of 0.6982. This represents the lowest price since September 2004.

Since then price has rebounded to a current high of 0.7355 in early London trade. This is a sign that demand has entered the market once again, at least temporarily.

In the accompanying statement, RBA Governor Glen Stevens said “conditions in international financial markets took a significant turn for the worse in September.”

“Demand and output could be significantly weaker than earlier expected.” He added, “an unusually large movement in the cash rate was appropriate in order to bring about a significant reduction in costs to borrowers.” However, this will not be a pattern for future rate decisions.

Elsewhere the BOJ kept rate unchanged at 0.50%, sighting a sluggish economy. The vote to maintain the overnight rate was unanimous as expected. “While carefully monitoring movement in global financial markets, we will continue to strive to maintain market stability.”

Last Week
Obviously last week’s major news was the rejection, modification and approval of the $700 billion credit market rescue plan in the US. President Bush finally signed the bill before the markets closed on Friday and the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act (EESA) of 2008 was born.

Investors in the US remain unconvinced by the bill with the DOW and the S&P500 closing at lows for the week. The DOW closed down 1.5% on Friday at 10,325.38 and the S&P at 1,099.23, off by 1.35% on the day. This brings up staggering losses for the week of 7.3% and 9.4% for the DOW and S&P respectively.

This week traders will be keenly anticipating Monday’s market open. Will investors and institutions be encouraged by the EESA or does it signal the beginning of a financial winter?

This Week
Even though economic news might be taking a back seat to the US bailout, we still have a very busy week in store.

The first high volatility of the week should be seen when Canadian Building Permits are released at 13:30 on Monday. Permit approvals are expected to fall by 1.4% MoM compared to August’s 1.8% increase.

A little later at 15:00 we have the Ivey PMI, also from Canada. The Richard Ivey School of Business index should indicate weak expansion amongst the surveyed purchasing managers with a reading of 51, down from the 51.5 previous.

Towards the end of the day, at 22:00, the NZIER Business Confidence reading will be released. New Zealand is braced for more bad news after last month’s -64 reading.

Tuesday will be dominated by global interest rate news. First up we have the BOJ Interest Rate Announcement which is expected before 4am UK time. The BOJ is likely to keep rates on hold at 0.50% once again. Although this event is only regarded as medium impact news the BOJ Press Conference later in the day should be met with high volatility.

Prior to this press conference we will see the RBA Interest Rate Statement. Economists are predicting a half-point cut to 6.50% and any more/ less than this will likely bring massive volatility to an already high-impact event.

The first high volatility from the UK will be seen on Tuesday. The Halifax House Price Index is due, but this release is subject to change as we have seen before. Expectations are for a MoM decrease of 1.8%, the same as we saw for August.

One UK event that will not be subject to a schedule rearrangement is the Manufacturing Production number. MoM the industry is likely to have contracted by 0.2%, the same as in the previous reporting period.

High volatility will come from the US when Ben Bernanke talks about the economic outlook in Washington DC at 18:15. We can also expect high volatility from the FOMC Meeting Minutes due for release at 19:00.

Wednesday will begin with Australian Home Loans data. MoM economists are expecting a 1.0% fall in the number of new loans granted compared to a 0.2% fall in the previous month.

Canadian construction/ housing data will return to focus at 13:15 with Housing Starts expected. An annualized number of 207K new residential buildings are likely to have been started in the month of September. This can be compared to a number of 211K in August.

The US housing market is seen as key to economic strength so Pending Home Sales will be very closely watched at 15:00. Once again numbers are expected to have fallen on a monthly basis. For the month of September a negative figure of 1.5% is expected.

Early on Thursday morning Australia will release Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data at 01:30. This data could be key to the AUDUSD rate depending on the RBA rate decision earlier in the week. Economists are expecting the change in the number of employed people to remain flat in September and an unemployment rate of 4.3%.

At midday the BOE Interest Rate Statement will be released. The general consensus is for a rate cut to 4.75%. Some economists believe that this will be the beginning of a dovish cycle that takes the Official Bank Rate to 3.5% over the next 12 months.

A G7 Meeting has been pencilled in for either Thursday or Friday this week. It is to be held in Washington DC and traders should be aware that officials are likely to talk to the press throughout the day. These events can bring high volatility to the market.

Friday will bring another wave of Canadian and US high volatility. Beginning at 12:00 we will see the Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. The Canadian labour market is expected to have added 11.0K jobs in September while the Unemployment Rate is likely to have increased to 6.2%.

At 13:30 the US and Canadian Trade Balance figures will be released. The US deficit is expected to have contracted slightly to $59.5 billion from the 62.2B seen previously. Canadian trade surplus probably fell to CAD 4.6B from 4.9B in August.

As always our economic calendar will keep you up to date with the week’s data.

Traders go into this week with the $700 billion credit market bailout casting a shadow over the economic data schedule. However, this should be resolved early in the week as the US Treasury tries to push the deal through.

Interestingly, a look at interest rate futures tells us that there is currently an 80% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 0.25% in their October meeting. The dust from the credit bailout will hardly have time to settle before traders start looking at this week’s massively important data. But will the economic indicators support the need for a cut or serve to reduce it?

This Week
The first high volatility event of the week will come from New Zealand on Sunday evening at 22:45. The New Zealand Trade Balance is expected to expand its deficit from 781 million Dollars to 912 million.

Monday will be reasonably quiet on the data front with the Core PCE Price Index from the US worth a watch. However, this is classed as a medium volatility event. The only high volatility news scheduled for Monday will come from New Zealand once again. Building Consents are due at 22:45 and are coming off the back of a 4.7% MoM increase for the month of July.

Tuesday will be very busy beginning with Building Approvals and Retail Sales Trend at 02:30 from Australia. Building Approvals are expected to fall by 1.0% MoM following a 2.3% decline in June. The Retail Sales Trend number is set to post a 0.1% increase, inline with the previous month’s number.

At 03:00 New Zealand will follow with its third high volatility event of the week. The National Bank of New Zealand Business Confidence indicator is due. Last month’s reading was -20.5 and traders will be keen to see if a recovery has taken place.

Next up at 09:30 is UK Current Account. The data is expected to come in at -9.7billion GBP compared to -8.4billion previous.

Later in the day the economic focus will shift to the opposite side of the Atlantic with Canada and the US reporting. Canada will release their monthly Gross Domestic Product. Last month’s data posted a modest gain of 0.1% with 0.2% expected this time.

The first high volatility event of the week from the US will be the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence. The index is expected to worsen slightly from 56.9 to 54.6.

Wednesday will be slightly quieter with 4 high volatility events scheduled compared to Tuesday’s 5. The US economic machine will really kick in but Japan’s Tankan Large Manufacturers Index is due first at 00:50. The index came in at 5 last time but it is expected to turn negative at -2 this time.

The UK’s Manufacturing PMI is due to be released at 09:30. Once again the index is likely to show industry contraction with a reading of 45.0 expected.

At 13:15 the first of the week’s important US employment data is set to be released. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to show 55K fewer jobs in September. This data will be very closely watched as it leads the official government figure by two days.

Later on at 15:00 the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released. Last month the index was 0.1 below the expansion/ contraction threshold of 50.0 and it is expected that this number will deteriorate to 49.5 for September.

On Thursday at 02:30 the Australian Trade Balance is due. Last month it came in at -0.72B billion AUD. This deficit is expected to be reversed to a slight surplus of 0.26 billion.

This will be followed by the UK’s Nationwide House Price Index at 07:00. The data is expected to show a 1.6% decline for the month of September after a 1.9% fall in August.

One of the main events of the week will be the ECB Interest Rate Announcement and the accompanying ECB Press Conference. The rate announcement is considered a medium volatility event with no change expected. However there is more of a risk to the downside and a rate cut may not be completely unexpected. The Eurozone Minimum Bid Rate currently stands at 4.25%.

The ECB Press Conference is regarded as a high volatility event as traders watch closely for Trichet’s explanation of the rate decision. The language used in the press conference is scrutinized very closely for clues to future rate moves.

Ahead of the Non-Farm Employment Change data due on Friday, Initial Jobless Claims will be closely watched. Last week’s new claims exploded to 493K with the number expected to fall slightly to 475K this week.

Friday will be dominated by news from the US but prior to this UK Services PMI is expected to create high volatility. The service sector is expected to show contraction in the month of September with a reading of 48.0 expected when compared to August’s 49.2.

At 13:30 US employment data will take centre stage. Non-Farm Employment Change is likely to show 100k fewer jobs compared to -84k in August. After increasing from 5.5% 3 months ago, US Unemployment Rate is likely to remain firm at 6.1%.

At 15:00 the final high volatility event of the week is due. This time it showcases the US non-manufacturing sector. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to the expansion/ contraction zone for the month of September, deteriorating from 50.6 the month before.

For full updates please see this week's economic calendar.

Last Week
Traders will go into work on Monday morning still trying to digest last week’s events. Just how will the market react to one of the most volatile weeks seen in decades?

Markets were thrown into turmoil straight from the off with the announcement that Lehman Brothers had gone bankrupt and the acquisition of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America. This was followed by the Fed bailout of AIG.

Financial markets in the US responded accordingly with the DOW’s biggest fall since 2001 with strength was seen in Gold and the Japanese Yen on risk aversion.

However, coordinated action from the world’s central banks flooded the market with liquidity which sparked the sharpest rally in US stocks since 1987. The US Government alone announced a $700 billion bank rescue plan and announced a ban on shorting financial stocks. This move was mirrored by financial authorities in the UK, Ireland and Australia.

This Week
This week will undoubtedly be dominated by the talking heads with Bernanke, Paulson and SEC Chairman Cox testifying no less than 4 times at various times. There are also two important US Housing data releases to consider.

Monday will start fairly slowly with little volatility coming from UK, Japanese or Eurozone economic releases. The first high volatility event of the week will come at 13:30 in the shape of Canadian Core Retail Sales. There was a 1.4% MoM increase for July with the August figure expected to show 0.3% growth.

Canada will also give us our second high volatility event of the week. The Core CPI is due for release at 12:00 on Tuesday. Data for August is expected to replicate that of July with a modest 0.1% MoM increase.

At 15:00 we have the first of the big testimonies with Bernanke, Paulson and Cox talking about the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and recent market turmoil. They will testify in front of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee in Washington DC.

Wednesday gets underway with some economic volatility from the Eurozone with German Ifo Business Climate due for release. The index is likely to contract slightly to 94.2 from 94.8 last month.

Two hours later at 11:00 the UK’s Confederation of British Industry (CBI) index of Realised Sales will be released. This is a high volatility event with last month’s reading of -46 expected to improve slightly to -40. However, this number is still well below registering an increase in sales volume amongst the surveyed retailers and wholesalers.

At 15:00 we have a double header from the US. The first big housing data release of the week is due with Existing Home Sales likely to contract to 4.93M in August from 5.00M in July. At the same time Bernanke’s testimony before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee in Washington DC gets underway.

Bernanke is not finished there however. His second testimony of the day, this time with Paulson, before of the House Financial Services Committee gets underway at 19:30 BST.

Thursday will be dominated by high volatility from US sources. First of all we will see Core Durable Goods Orders. Last month offered a positive 0.7% increase with economists expecting that to be offset by -0.5% this time around.

At 15:00 we will see New Home Sales. Traders are expecting August’s sales to have softened to 510K from 515K in July.

Bernanke’s fourth and final outing of the week will come along with US Treasury Secretary Paulson once again. This time they will appear before the House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services with regards to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and recent market turmoil.

Thursday is rounded off by New Zealand’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). QoQ the indicator is likely to show that the New Zealand economy contracted by 0.5%, more than the -0.3% seen in the previous quarter.

Friday promises to be a slightly quieter day, dominated by medium volatility events. The UK’s Nationwide House Price Index (HPI) is tentatively scheduled for a release although this could be put back to feature in the last week of the month. Economists expect a fall of 2.0% MoM to be reported.

A full schedule of this week’s testimonies can be found on our economic speeches calendar. The Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales and Canadian Core CPI releases will also be supported by our visual analysis and historical data tool. Full breakdown and evaluation of these data releases will be featured right here on our Market News blog.

Last Week
The most interesting price action last week came on Friday with the US Dollar giving back some of its recent gains. The Dollar sell-off was triggered by weaker than expected PPI and Retail Sales news and speculation that the Fed may have to cut interest rates further in order to stimulate the economy.

However, it is unlikely that the Greenback has formed anything more than a short-term top on healthy profit taking activity. The Fed may very well have to cut interest rates further; interest rate futures are currently pricing in a 40% chance of a cut by December, up from 0% a month ago. But the medium term outlook remains the same.

There is still no change in the view that other country’s economies (Eurozone and UK in particular) are slowing faster than in the US. This will lead to interest rate cuts from the respective central banks. Due to the fact that their rates are currently much higher than the Fed’s the Dollar will be supported by the theory that ECB and BOE interest rate cuts will be much more aggressive than any more from the Fed.

This Week
We begin the week on Monday with traders keen to see how Friday’s profit taking has been digested over the weekend. With no high volatility events planned it could be a quiet session, especially with the Japanese national holiday ‘Respect for the Aged Day’.

Monday’s highlights are likely to be the Swiss double header at 08:15 with PPI MoM and Retail Sales YoY due for release. The Producer Price Index is likely to come in at -0.2% after last month’s 0.5% increase. Retail Sales are expected to show a sharp increase with expectations at 2.3% compared to the yearly figure released last month of 0.7%.

Later in the day we are also likely to see some volatility from the US with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Capacity Utilization Rate and Industrial Production set for release. All three indicators are likely to show evidence of a waning US economy. The Manufacturing Survey will probably come in at 1.5 vs 2.8 last month, Capacity Utilization will fall to 79.6% from 79.9% and Industrial Production probably contracted by 0.3% last month.

In the early hours of Tuesday morning we will have our first high volatility event of the week. The RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be released with traders keen to see how September 2nd’s meeting unfolded. The decision was taken at the time to leave the cash rate unchanged at 7.00%.

Tuesday will play host to four very big announcements with no less than 3 CPI numbers and the FOMC Interest Rate Statement all due. First up is UK CPI with consumer inflation expected to smash the BOE’s 2.0% target once again. Economists are predicting year-over-year inflation at 4.6%, up from the 4.4% in July.

Half an hour later, at 10:00 UK time, the Eurozone CPI will be released. The Consumer Price Index is expected to remain at 3.8% YoY. It should also be noted that the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment is due for release at the same time. It is unlikely that this data will conflict significantly with the CPI but traders should be alert non the less. ZEW Sentiment is expected at -55.0 vs -55.7 last month.

The next high volatility event will be the US Core CPI MoM. The data came in at 0.3% last month with 0.2% expected this time.

Half an hour later at 14:00 we can expect the Treasury International Capital (TIC) Net Long-Term Transactions. The data, which measures the inflow of capital from abroad, is expected to show a surplus of $55.0B compared to $53.4B last month.

At 19:15 the FOMC Interest Rate Statement is due. The Federal Funds Rate is expected to remain at 2.00% with traders watching the language in the accompanying statement very closely. The focus will be on any change in the language that may allude to a rate cut before the end of the year.

Wednesday will see the release of the BOJ Interest Rate Announcement. Although it is not considered a high volatility event in itself with the Overnight Call Rate expected to remain at 0.50%, the BOJ Press Conference due before 08:00 will draw high volatility.

The next round of high volatility on Wednesday is due from the UK. The BOE MPC Meeting Minutes and Claimant Count Change will hit the wire at 09:30. Claimant Count Change is expected to increase slightly with 22.2K expected vs 20.1K reported previously. The MPC Meeting Minutes are likely to show a 1-1-7 vote split in favour of keeping rates unchanged at 5.00%.

Next up for the US is the release of Building Permits. Economists are expecting a figure of 925K residential permits issued compared to 937K last month.

On Thursday the first high volatility event will come from the UK at 09:30. Retail Sales MoM are due with a figure of -0.4% expected compared to a 0.8% increase last month. UK Retail Sales have been exceptionally volatile of late with numbers ranging from 3.6% to -4.3% over the previous 3 months. It would be very wise for traders to exercise caution around the time of this event; especially those focussed on short-term price swings.

At 13:00 the third central bank announcement is due. This time it comes in the shape of the SNB Interest Rate Statement. The Statement is comprised of the LIBOR Rate and the Monetary Policy Assessment. The general consensus is that the SNB will remain on hold at 2.75%.

The final high volatility event of the week will come at 23:45 on Thursday night from New Zealand. The Current Account balance is expected to have fallen further into negative territory to $ -3.4B from $ -2.2B last month.

Friday promises to be a quiet day, especially in the New York session. Early volatility will be seen when BOC Deputy Governor Murray speaks in Toronto and later on for the German PPI number. However, both of these events are only classified with a medium volatility rating.

Our Visual Analysis and Historical Data tool will come into use this week with the US Core CPI supported.

For all the latest numbers and updates please check our economic calendar and expect a breakdown of the US Core CPI right here on Tuesday.