December 26, 2008

US Housing Makes Multi-Year Lows - New and Existing Home Sales Plummet

There was resoundingly negative news from the US Housing Market today as New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales both fell to multi-year lows.

Data from the National Association of Realtors showed that sales of Existing Homes dropped to 4.49 million units, an 11-year low. This fall represented a record 8.6% monthly decline from October’s revised 4.91M. Economists had been expecting a modest moderation to 4.90 million units.

This is the first time that the annualized rate has deviated significantly from the 5 million mark in more than a year. Sales have remained relatively consistent since the drop from 5.50M to 5.11M in August/ September 2007. This is despite the fact that the median sale price of Existing Homes has dropped by 13.2% over the past year. This is the largest year-over-year decline since records began in 1968 and “probably the largest price decline since the Great Depression.”

On a regional basis the Northeast led the decline in sales, down 12.0% on the month and 18.0% in the last year. The Northeast has now marginally overtaken the West as the worst performing region over the past 12 months. The South was down by 10.9% (-17.6% YoY), followed by the Midwest and West down 7.4% and 4.3% in November, 16.0% and 17.9% respectively on the year.

The median sales price of Existing Homes has fallen across all four regions in the last year. The West has been hardest hit, down a staggering 25.5%, while the Northeast is only down 0.1% at $257 700. The Midwest and South currently stand at -11.2 and -10.6 percent on the year.

Inventories were up a touch to 4 203 000 from the 4 198 000 seen in October. However, at the current sales pace this sees the monthly supply move up to 11.2 months, the highest since April of this year.

New Homes Sales were equally as disappointing in November. According to the Census Bureau the seasonally adjusted, annualized sales rate currently stands at 407K, the lowest rate since January 1991. This represents a 2.9% MoM fall from October’s revised estimate of 419K. Furthermore, sales of single-family new homes are now 35.3 percent lower than they were at the same time last year.

On a yearly basis, all four regions are in negative territory in terms of units sold. The largest decrease has been seen in the South with sales 38.1% lower over the past 12 months. The Mid-West (down 34.9%), West (-32.2%) and the Northeast (-27.3%) aren’t too far behind.

Between October and November sales in the Northeast and West actually increased by 14.3 and 11.0 percent respectively. However, In the Midwest and South declines of 16.4 and 7.1 percent were reported.

The median sale price of a single family new home increased to $220 400 in November from October’s 214 600. However, this is 11.1% lower than the 2007 year ending price.

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November 26, 2008

New Home Sales fall in October - Number of Homes for Sale at 4-Year Low

New Residential Sales fell by 5.3% percent in October from September’s revised 457K the Census Bureau reported today. Today’s number of 433K is 40.1 percent lower than the sales volume seen one year ago. The sale of new single-family homes has not been this low since the 401K seen in January 1991.

The number of homes for sale at the end of October was also at multi-year lows. It was reported that 381K new homes were for sale across the United States, the lowest since February 2004. However, the reduction in inventories was not enough to reduce the number of months it would take to clear the overstock. At the current sales pace it would take 11.1 months, up from 10.9 months at the end of September. This is the highest number seen since March of this year.

Median sales price was down to $218 000 in October, lower than the 221 700 seen one month previous. The median sales price has not been this low since September 2004 when it stood at £211 600. One year ago, the median sales price stood at $234 300. The average sales price was also down to $272 300 from 283 700 in September.

 

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