December 26, 2008

US Housing Makes Multi-Year Lows - New and Existing Home Sales Plummet

There was resoundingly negative news from the US Housing Market today as New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales both fell to multi-year lows.

Data from the National Association of Realtors showed that sales of Existing Homes dropped to 4.49 million units, an 11-year low. This fall represented a record 8.6% monthly decline from October’s revised 4.91M. Economists had been expecting a modest moderation to 4.90 million units.

This is the first time that the annualized rate has deviated significantly from the 5 million mark in more than a year. Sales have remained relatively consistent since the drop from 5.50M to 5.11M in August/ September 2007. This is despite the fact that the median sale price of Existing Homes has dropped by 13.2% over the past year. This is the largest year-over-year decline since records began in 1968 and “probably the largest price decline since the Great Depression.”

On a regional basis the Northeast led the decline in sales, down 12.0% on the month and 18.0% in the last year. The Northeast has now marginally overtaken the West as the worst performing region over the past 12 months. The South was down by 10.9% (-17.6% YoY), followed by the Midwest and West down 7.4% and 4.3% in November, 16.0% and 17.9% respectively on the year.

The median sales price of Existing Homes has fallen across all four regions in the last year. The West has been hardest hit, down a staggering 25.5%, while the Northeast is only down 0.1% at $257 700. The Midwest and South currently stand at -11.2 and -10.6 percent on the year.

Inventories were up a touch to 4 203 000 from the 4 198 000 seen in October. However, at the current sales pace this sees the monthly supply move up to 11.2 months, the highest since April of this year.

New Homes Sales were equally as disappointing in November. According to the Census Bureau the seasonally adjusted, annualized sales rate currently stands at 407K, the lowest rate since January 1991. This represents a 2.9% MoM fall from October’s revised estimate of 419K. Furthermore, sales of single-family new homes are now 35.3 percent lower than they were at the same time last year.

On a yearly basis, all four regions are in negative territory in terms of units sold. The largest decrease has been seen in the South with sales 38.1% lower over the past 12 months. The Mid-West (down 34.9%), West (-32.2%) and the Northeast (-27.3%) aren’t too far behind.

Between October and November sales in the Northeast and West actually increased by 14.3 and 11.0 percent respectively. However, In the Midwest and South declines of 16.4 and 7.1 percent were reported.

The median sale price of a single family new home increased to $220 400 in November from October’s 214 600. However, this is 11.1% lower than the 2007 year ending price.

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November 24, 2008

US Existing Homes - Sales and Prices Fall in October

Existing Home Sales in the US fell during the month of October to an annualized rate of 4.98 million units, the National Association of Realtors said today. The median sales price of existing homes also fell, to $183 300.

The fall in sales volume represents a 3.1% drop from September’s revised figure of 5.14M, or a 1.6% decrease when compared to the same time last year.

The biggest monthly reduction in sales was seen in the Midwest (-6.0%), followed by the South (-3.2%), the West (-1.6%) and the Northeast (-1.2%). On a yearly basis the West remains top performer. Today’s 1.21M represents a 37.5% increase on the lowly 880K seen in October 07. However the other three regions remain in negative territory. The Northeast, Midwest and South are down 9.8%, 9.1% and 10.2% respectively.

Inventories of previously owned homes fell by 0.9% in October to 4.23M. However, the contraction in sales pace meant a slight increase to 10.2 from 10.0 months supply at the current sales rate.

Median sales prices posted their fourth straight monthly decline and currently stand at -11.3 percent on the year. A closer look at regional data reveals that the sales increase in the West has come at the expense of prices with -27.0% YoY. The Northeast, Midwest and South are also lower, down 6.1%, 6.7% and 5.8% respectively.

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October 24, 2008

US Existing Home Sales Highest Since Aug 07, Prices at 4-Year Low

Existing Home Sales in the United States outpaced economists’ expectations in September as they rose by the fastest pace in five years, the National Association of Realtors reported today.

Sales in September increased to 5.18 million units annualized, a MoM increase of 5.5%. 5.18M is the highest number seen since the 5.50M seen in August 07.

Sales in the West grew by the largest margin, up 16.8% on the month, 34.4% on the year. The Midwest managed a 4.4% gain with the South registering 2.2%. The Northeast was the only region in negative figures, down 1.2% on the month.

The positive news of an increase in sales was slightly diminished by the lowest median price of a previously owned home seen in four years. Down 9.0% on the year the median price now stands at $191, 600.

The largest fall was seen in the West with prices off by 18.5% on the year, followed by the Midwest down 7.9%. Median prices in the Northeast are down by 5.4% to $246, 800.

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September 24, 2008

US Existing Home Sales at the Bottom Yet? Prices and Sales Decline in August

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported today that US Existing Home Sales fell by more than expected to 4.91M in August. Prices of existing homes also fell, dropping by a record amount.

It had been expected that the seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of existing home sales would fall to 4.93M in August, down from a revised 5.02M in July. Today’s data represents a 2.2% fall from last year’s sale pace. Sales are now down by 10.7% year to date.

The median price of an existing home came in at $203 100, down 9.5% from last year. This is the largest drop since NAR records began in 1999. Prices in the West make the toughest reading as they now stand at -23.9% YoY.

Inventories of homes for sale improved slightly from July’s record breaking 4 575 000 by 7.0% to 4 255 000. However, this figure still represents 10.4 months’ supply at the current sales pace.

Price action in the US Dollar is currently range-bound. As you can see from the GBPUSD below, price has remained constrained since the beginning of testimony from Capitol Hill on Tuesday. The range is likely to remain intact until traders can digest the remarks and implications concerning the proposed credit market bailout.

Trading in the GBPUSD is currently bound between the extremes of 1.8640 and 1.8469.

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