November 21, 2008

Canadian CPI Eases Sharply in October

Canadian Consumer Price Index followed the example set by the US earlier in the week and dropped sharply in October. Statistics Canada reported a 1.0% MoM fall in the headline number while the Core CPI also dropped, off by 0.2%.

The fall in CPI represents the largest decline in almost 50 years. This brings the YoY rate down to 2.6%. In September the yearly rate stood at 3.4 percent. Core CPI remained at 1.7%, below the 1.9% that had been expected.

The largest contributing factor to the fall in consumer prices was gasoline. On a monthly basis prices fell by 13.4%. This represents the sharpest decline since June 1959. However, they remain 13.3% higher on the year, down from 26.5% in the previous month.

Food prices continue to gain momentum, up 6.1% for the 12 months ending in October after the 5.6% increase in September.

Today’s data is likely to have little effect on the BOC’s monetary Policy decisions. The Bank has made it perfectly clear that it intends to cut interest rates, with a move highly likely at the December 9th meeting. The BOC expects consumer inflation to fall to below 1 percent in 2009.

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October 24, 2008

Canadian CPI Beats Expectations but Begins to Slow

Canadian Core CPI and Headline CPI both beat analyst forecasts in September but overall inflation has begun to slow on a yearly basis, Statistics Canada reported today.

Headline Consumer Price Index came in at 0.1% MoM compared to the -0.1% that had been expected for September. This brought the yearly number to 3.4%, down from 3.5% in the previous month. August’s reading had been the highest in more than 5 years.

The slowing of prices was due in most part to Shelter (down 0.6% MoM), Clothing and Footwear (down 0.3% MoM) and Transportation (down 0.6% MoM) on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Core CPI, which strips out the most volatile items, increased by 0.4% MoM, better than the 0.3% that had been expected. On a yearly basis Core CPI now stands at 1.7%, unchanged from the previous month.

Will today’s data influence the BOC at their next interest rate meeting on December 9th? Probably not. The BOC’s primary concern is the dwindling economy and falling commodity prices. The Bank sees inflation falling below 1.0% over the coming year.

This week’s BOC Interest Rate Statement saw the Overnight rate cut by 0.25% to 2.25%. The USD CAD climbed to its highest level since May 2005 today, recording a high of 1.2841.

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September 23, 2008

Canadian Core CPI Beats Expectations In August

Canadian Core CPI beat expectations for the month of August, Statistics Canada announced today.

Seasonally adjusted, the Core index increased 0.3% MoM in August, beating expectations of a 0.1% increase. This is also up from the 0.1% seen in July.

Today’s number hauls the yearly Core CPI up to 1.7%, better than the 1.6% expected and the 1.5% seen over the last four 12 month periods.

The headline Consumer Price Index, or raw number, came in slightly worse than expected on a MoM basis. A figure of -0.2% was reported in comparison to -0.1% expected. Overall, this brings the YoY number to 3.5%, up from 3.4% in July.

The Bank of Canada’s Core CPI excludes fruit, fruit preparations and nuts, vegetables and vegetable preparations, mortgage interest costs, natural gas, fuel oil and other fuels, gasoline, inner-city transportation and tobacco products and smokers’ supplies. This would account for the difference between headline and Core CPI.

Among the components weighing on the all-items CPI were transportation down 2.1% MoM and energy which registered -3.0% MoM. However, on a yearly basis transportation and energy are still up 5.8% and 20.2% respectively.

The Canadian Dollar’s reaction to the data was fairly tame, managing an intra-day low of 1.0303 in the USDCAD. However, traders are still very much preoccupied by the US Fed Wall Street bailout.

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