US Existing Home Sales - Visual Analysis & Historical Data

Economists and traders keenly watch US Existing Home Sales. This is because they reflect the demand side of the housing market, unlike building permits and housing starts that reflect the supply side.

The demand for housing is seen as a key driver of consumer spending and construction investment, which has a knock-on effect on the labour market. Rising demand is seen as an indication that consumers feel comfortable about the economic environment and that they feel 'safe' making a significant expenditure.

If you would like to view historical data for Existing Home Sales you can do so by clicking here or scrolling to the bottom of the page.

US Existing Home Sales

Monthly data for the annualized rate of Existing Home Sales

December 23 2008:	US Housing Makes Multi-Year Lows - New and Existing Home Sales Plummet
November 24 2008:	US Existing Homes - Sales and Prices Fall in October
October 08 Update:	Post-release: US Existing Home Sales Highest Since Aug 07, Prices at 4-Year Low
September 08 Update:	Post-release: US Existing Home Sales at the Bottom Yet? Prices and Sales Decline in August
July 08 Update:	Post-release: As reported by the National Association of Realtors, US Existing Home Sales fell by 2.6% MoM to a 10-year low. The 4.86M actually reported is worse than the 4.93M that had been expected. However, the news wasn’t all bad as the report showed that Average Sale Price of Existing Homes increased for the fourth straight month to $215 100. Although this figure is still some 6.1% lower than the same time in the previous year the average sale price is an important marker for the US economy and it is showing signs of stabilising, at least in the short term. Inventories were up to 11.2 months supply of single-family homes and condominiums. This was up 0.2% to 4.49M.
June 08 Update:	Post-release: Existing Home Sales increased 2.0% MoM but are still -15.9% YoY the National Association of Realtors reported today. Some economists are arguing that the existing homes market is forming a bottom thanks to the fairly stable number of sales seen in recent months. The increase in monthly sales has led to a decline in inventories. Inventories fell by 1.4% MoM which means that it would take 10.8 months to clear all unsold homes at the current market pace. Also reported today, the median sale price fell by 6.3% YoY to $208 600. This represents the fifth-largest decrease for condos and single-family homes since 1999.
May 08 Update:	Post-release: As expected Existing Home Sales came in below the 5 million mark at 4.89 mln, down from an upwardly revised 4.94 mln in March. This number represents a 1.0% drop in the annualised rate but sales have been stable between the 5.03 to 4.89 million mark since September 2007’s data. Worryingly inventories of previously owned homes for sale has increased by a further 10.5% to 4.55 million. This represents an 11.2 month supply at the current sales rate. Pre-release: Existing home sales are expected to come in below the 5 million mark for the second month in a row at 4.86 million. The supply of existing homes is weighing on the housing market. In April supply stood at 9.9 months, down from a high of 10.2 months in January. The supply factor is having an effect on prices as the US House Price Index reported yesterday (May 22). Month over month house prices were down 0.4% with the previous month’s figure revised from a gain of 0.6% to just 0.4%. As previously reported, stricter credit controls and higher mortgage rates are keeping potential buyers on the sidelines. These factors are offsetting the lure of lower prices. In the current economic climate of high inflation and a weak labor market it would seem that US housing market is at least several months off staging a recovery.
April 08 Update:	Post-release: US Existing Home Sales come out slightly better than expected but still disappoint for March. The seasonally adjusted number of 4.93M represents a 2% fall from the previous months’ data, 19.3% in the last year. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported single-family home sales at 4.35M, down from the previous months’ 4.47M. The US consumer is facing a somewhat extraordinary situation; mortgage rates are increasing due to the credit crunch but interest rates are in free-fall mode. NAR chief economist, Lawrence Yun, has urged the Fed to be very careful of inflation in regards to a housing market recovery. "Mortgage interest rates, which do not move directly with Fed funds rates, may rise measurably and hurt the housing recovery if inflation gets out of hand.” Pre-release: Economists are expecting a resumption of the downward trend in existing home sales today after a brief rest bite last month. The March figure is expected to decline by 2.6% to 4.90 million units, after February’s 5.03M. Despite Feb’s unexpected expansion in Existing Home Sales the number still represented a 23.8% fall from the same period in the previous year. This would indicate that the US Housing Market is far from a recovery. And if the Mach decline comes in as expected some economists will point to this as evidence that the market isn’t even stabilizing.
Mar 08 Update:	Post-release: Existing Home Sales unexpectedly rose in February, up 2.9% to 5.03 million. The National Association of Realtors (NAR), who compile the data, said that the increase was due to the large decline in house prices. Economists had expected sales to fall to 4.85 million but it seems that the decrease in Fed Interest Rates and the fall in house prices was enough to increase demand amongst consumers. "The relationship (between interest rates and house prices) has improved to the point where buyers are more serious about making offers". - NAR Chief Economist, Yun. Post-release the Dollar is slightly higher against the Yen, Euro and Swiss Franc but lower against the GB Pound and Canadian Dollar in very light holiday trading. Pre-release: February's Existing Home Sales are expected to decline to 4.85 million as the falling trend continues. It seems that consumers are reluctant to buy because the tight credit market has killed cheap mortgages and prices are still expected to drop further. January's Existing Homes Sales came in at 4.89 million, a near ten-year low. The Feb number is expected to contract by a further 0.8% from Jan with 4.85 million anticipated by the market. It seems that a housing market recovery is still some way off. If the US labor market continues to decline then it will have an impact on the housing market. It should also be noted that US Consumer Confidence is expected to fall again this month to 73.5 with consumers less likely to make large purchases when they feel pessimistic.
Feb 08 Update:	Post-release: Existing Home Sales fell to the lowest level on record this month. The figure came in at 4.89M, better than the 4.80M market consensus, but lower than the 4.91M revised number from last month. Over the past year Existing Home Sales have decline by 23.4% while the supply of homes available has increased by 5.5%. This indicates a further reduction in house price inflation which seems set to pressure consumer spending. Reaction to the data was limited. Some Dollar buying was seen in EURUSD and GBPUSD on the back of the number but nothing significant. The fact is that economists expect the sale of homes to decline further over the medium term. Pre-release: US Existing Home Sales are due to be released on Monday Feb 25th at 15:00 GMT. The Market is expecting a slight contraction from 4.89M in the previous month to 4.80M annualised. According to the National Association of Realtors, who compiles the Existing Home Sales data, the figure has decline by some 22% over the last year. So what price action can be expected for the release? With the Dollar in decline across the board against the majors, and the markets reluctance to buy positive news it seems unlikely that a positive number would create much demand for the Greenback. This is because economists still believe that Existing Homes will continue to decline over the next 6-12 month period as credit problems work through the market. On the other hand, a negative number is already expected and somewhat priced in. It is likely to take a much worse than expected figure for long-term Dollar bears to add to their positions.

US Existing Home Sales Historical Data

2008

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Forecast

4.80M

4.85M

4.90M

4.86M

4.96M

4.93M

4.92M

4.93M

5.02M

4.90M

4.40M

Actual

4.89M

5.03M

4.94M

4.89M

4.99M

4.85M

5.02M

4.91M

5.14M

4.91M
(-0.07M)

4.45M
(-0.04M)

4.74M

2007

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Forecast

6.25M

6.34M

6.55M

6.14M

5.96M

5.87M

5.75M

5.50M

5.25M

5.00M

4.97M

4.95M

Actual

6.44M

6.69M

6.15M

6.01M

5.93M

5.75M

5.76M

5.50M

5.11M

5.06M

5.02M

4.91M

Revised Higher - Revised Lower

* Please note that the date relates to the reporting period, not the release date. i.e. Data released in January is reporting the annualized rate of Existing Home Sales for the month of December, data released in February is the January number and so on. Therefore data will always appear to be one month ‘behind’.

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